【科学美国人DAY2】新型冠状病毒可能会在全球持续传播?多伦多Allison McGeer博士悲观评论

最新消息 2020-02-12 11:51:49


Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus专家警告说,新的冠状病毒可能会在全球持续传播



If the virus cannot be contained, it could start regularly circulating in the population like other common respiratory viruses如果病毒无法被控制,它可能会像其他常见呼吸道病毒一样开始在人群中定期传播

1. Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people. “The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.
一些传染病专家警告说,遏制在中国传播的新型冠状病毒可能不再可行。不能在武汉阻止病毒传播,可能会造成病毒在世界各地持续传播,甚至该种病毒可能会加入经常感染人类呼吸道的毒行列。“我们对它了解得越多,就越明白通过公共卫生措施无法控制其传播,”多伦多传染病专家埃里森·麦吉尔(Allison McGeer)博士说。艾里森·麦克吉尔博士于2003年感染了非典,曾帮助沙特阿拉伯控制了几起基于医院的MERS爆发。

2. If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.

3. The pessimistic assessment comes from both researchers studying the dynamics of the outbreak—the rate at which cases are rising in and emerging from China—and infectious diseases experts who are parsingthe first published studies describing cases to see if public health tools such as isolation and quarantine could as effective in this outbreak as they were in the 2003 SARS epidemic.
这种悲观评估主要来自研究疫情动态的研究人员(中国病例的上升和上升的速度),以及传染病专家,他们正在解析最早发表的描述病例的研究,以了解诸如 2003年SARS疫情一样,隔离和检疫在这次疫情中同样有效。

4. And the warnings come as the United States reported over the weekend finding three more cases, the country’s third, fourth, and fifth. Two were diagnosed in California. One is a traveler from Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have started, who was diagnosed in Orange County. The other is someone who visited Wuhan who was diagnosed in Los Angeles County. The fifth case was diagnosed in Arizona and is a student at Arizona State University; the person had also traveled to Wuhan. Confirmed infections within China climbed to nearly 2,750 and the death toll rose to 80.

5. China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, warned Sunday that the virus seems to be becoming more transmissible and the country—which has taken unprecedentedly draconian steps to control the virus—was entering a “crucial stage.” China’s actions—which include shutting off flights and trains from some affected cities and effectively putting tens of millions of people into quarantine—may not be enough to stop the virus, experts said.

6. “Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak. There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.
伦敦帝国理工学院(Imperial College London)传染病流行病学专家尼尔·弗格森(Neil Ferguson)说,“尽管中国和世界各地做出了巨大而令人钦佩的努力,但我们想要制定遏制这种流行病的计划是不可能的”弗格森周日告诉《卫报》(The Guardian),中国可能已经有多达10万起病例,她还补充说,这表明,病例数量可能在3万到20万之间。“几乎可以肯定有成千上万的人被感染了,”他告诉这家报纸。 


7.  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced Sunday it is donating $10 million to the response to the virus. Half the money will be given to Chinese groups to help them in containment efforts. The other half will be given to the African Center for Disease Control to fund its efforts to help African countries prepare to have to cope with the new infection. Also on Sunday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted that he is traveling to Beijing to meet with Chinese authorities to offer support and to learn more about the outbreak.
比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会周日宣布将捐赠1000万美元用于应对这种病毒。其中一半的资金将提供给中国,帮助遏制疫情。另一半将捐给非洲疾病控制中心,以帮助非洲国家准备应对新感染。同样在周日,世界卫生组织总干事Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus在推特上说,他将前往北京与中国当局会面,提供支持,并了解更多有关疫情的信息。 


8.  The WHO so far has not declared the outbreak a global health emergency, though Tedros, as he is know, has said the spread of the new virus is a crisis for China and a risk to countries beyond it. The WHO declined to label the outbreak a global health emergency of international concern on the advice of a panel of experts who met Wednesday and Thursday, though those experts were split on whether a PHEIC should be declared.


9.  This outbreak is caused by a virus—currently known as 2019-nCoV—that belongs to the same family as the viruses that caused the SARS outbreak and which cause sporadic flare-ups of cases of MERS on the Arabian Peninsula.
这次疫情是由一种目前被称为2019- ncov的病毒引起的,这种病毒与导致SARS爆发的病毒属于同一科,并在阿拉伯半岛造成中东呼吸综合征病例的爆发。

10. The SARS virus caused an explosive outbreak in late 2002 and early 2003, infecting more than 8,000 people around the globe and killing nearly 800 before it was contained. MERS has never caused a sustain global outbreak, though a number of large hospital-based outbreaks—including one in South Korea sparked by a businessman who contracted the virus in the Middle East—have been recorded.
非典型肺炎病毒在2002年底 2003年初爆发,在全球范围内感染了8000多人,在得到控制之前造成了近800人死亡。中东呼吸综合征从未在全球范围内造成持续的疫情爆发,但有记录显示,在医院里曾发生过多次大规模疫情,其中一次是由一名在中东地区感染了该病毒的商人在韩国引发的。


10.  One of the luckiest breaks the world got with the SARS outbreak was the fact that the virus did not transmit before people developed symptoms. With some diseases, like influenza and measles, people who are infected but who are not yet feeling sick—people who are still going to work or school, taking public transit, shopping in malls, or going to movies—can pass the viruses to others.


11.  Tools like quarantine and isolation—which were key to controlling SARS—are unlikely stop spread of a virus that can transmit during the period from infection to symptoms, experts say. Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency knows transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.
专家说,隔离检疫和隔离是控制非典的关键,但这类方法不太可能阻止病毒在感染到症状出现期间的传播。美国疾病控制与预防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)国家免疫和呼吸系统疾病中心(National Center for immune and Respiratory Diseases)主任梅索尼埃(Nancy Messonnier)说,该机构知道,这种病毒可能很快会在美国境内传播。

13. “We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,” she told STAT. “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.” To date, at least 14 countries and territories outside of mainland China have reported nearly 60 cases. There have been no reports yet of unchecked spreading from those imported cases to others. “In hours where I’m feeling optimistic I think about the fact that none of the other countries, including the U.S., have seen significant sustained chains of transmission,” Messonnier said. “But that doesn’t mean that it’s not coming.”
 “我们向前迈进了一大步。”她对STAT表示:“我们在每一步中对每一件我们能够做的事情都采取积极态度。” “然而,我们知道我们所做的一切可能还不足以阻止这种病毒在美国传播。”迄今为止,至少有14个国家和地区在中国大陆以外报道了近60例感染。目前还没有从这些输入病例向其他病例不加控制地传播的报告。 “在我感到乐观的几个小时里,我想到了一个事实,没有其他国家,包括美国出现明显的持续传播链。但这并不意味着它不会到来。”他说 


14.  It also appears that the incubation time—the time from infection to the development of symptoms—may be a bit shorter than that of SARS, McGeer said, citing a paper published Friday that described transmission within a family in Hong Kong. With SARS, most people developed symptoms about four or five days after infection, she said.

15.  A short incubation period gives health authorities less time to track down and quarantine people who have been exposed to the virus and who are en route to becoming infectious. Scientists who have been studying the genetic sequences of viruses from China and a few other of the countries that have recorded cases have calculated what is known as the reproductive rate of this outbreak—the number of people, on average, that each case will infect.

16.  An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will peter out.But a number of groups have calculated a reproductive rate for this current outbreak—known by the term R-naught or R0—in the range of 2 to 3 or beyond. Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, suggested the estimates are sobering and point to continued spread. “If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,” Bedford said, though he cautioned that it’s impossible to know at this point how severe that type of event would be.
繁殖数量低于1的疫情将逐渐降低。但许多研究小组已经计算出了当前这一突发事件的繁殖率——被称为r - 0或r0——在2到3或更高的范围内。西雅图佛瑞德·哈钦森癌症研究中心的计算生物学家特雷弗·贝德福德认为,这些估计数字发人深省,表明病毒仍在继续扩散。贝德福德说:“如果疫情不能很快得到控制,我认为我们将面临一场大流行。”不过他警告说,目前还不可能知道这种疫情会有多严重。

17. Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus. Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than have already been announced, he suggested.

18. “I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around the possibility that this won’t be contained.”









respiratory/rɪ'spɪrət(ə)rɪ/ adj. 呼吸的,呼吸用的【例句】Hepatitis won't follow us into the respiratory system.肝炎病毒不会跟进呼吸系统里来的。
be feasible to适用于;对…可行的【例句】It would be more feasible to scan a dead brain using an electron microscope, but even that technology is nowhere near good enough and requires killing the subject first.使用电子显微镜扫描死脑会更可行,但即使是这项技术也远远不够好。需要先杀死扫描对象。
transmission /trænz'mɪʃ(ə)n/ n. 传送, 传播, 传达;播送【同根】transmissible adj. 能传送的;能透射的;可传达的【例句】The influenza virus has shown person-to-person transmission in a given locale.业已证明流行性感冒病毒能在特定地点在人与人之间传播。
pose significant challenges to…带来挑战
parse/pɑːz/vt. 从语法上描述或分析(词句等);分析【例句】And they parsed some 15,000 episodes of aggression, noting the relationships among the individuals involved.研究人员分析了约15000次侵略事件,同时记录了参与事件的个体之间的关系。
quarantine/'kwɒrəntiːn/ n. (人或动物生病之后被隔离的)检疫期vt. 对…进行检疫隔离【例句】If someone has Ebola, they need to be quarantined with minimal visitors.如果有人感染了埃博拉病毒,他们需要被隔离,只能接触极少数的人。
epidemic/epɪ'demɪk/ adj. 流行的;传染性的n. 流行病;传染病;风尚等的流行【同根】epidemiology n. 流行病学【例句】Ebola might have become a worldwide epidemic.那么,埃博拉病毒很可能会席卷全球。
draconian/drə'kəunjən/ adj. 非常严厉的;非常严酷的【例句】The dictator took Draconian measures against those he suspected of plotting a rebellion.独裁者以严苛的手段来对付那些他怀疑阴谋反叛的人。
sporadic/spə'rædɪk/ adj. 零星的;分散的;不定时发生的【例句】Rival government and opposition forces signed a peace deal last month-but sporadic fighting continues.上个月敌对政府和反对派签署了一份和平协议—但零星战斗仍在继续。
flare-up/'fleər,ʌp/ n. 火焰、光等的骤发,骤燃,怒气(或疾病)的发作,昙花一现式的出名,喧笑【例句】Following two subsequent flare-ups, astronomers have now concluded that SN 2009ip has gone supernova at last.接着又发生两起爆炸现象,宇航员总结道:最终 SN 2009ip 还是变成了超新星。
on the horizon在地平线上;即将来临的【例句】We discerned a sail on the horizon.   我们看见了地平线上的一张帆。
incubation /ɪŋkjʊ'beɪʃ(ə)n/ n. 孵卵;孵化;<医,生>(传染病的)潜伏期;<生>(细菌等的)繁殖;潜伏期【重点词汇】This is called an incubation period. During incubation, vaccination can still prevent infection.这就称作潜伏期,在潜伏期,疫苗仍能预防感染。
track down追捕;查出【例句】All of these things help us track down the issue sooner.  所有这些信息都能帮助我们更快地跟踪问题。
en route to在前往……途中【例句】We also have a ship en route to the Marianas Islands to assist as needed.我们也有一艘船正在前往马里亚纳群岛去提供所需的援助。
peter out v. 逐渐消失;逐渐减少【例句】Then our conversation petered out, and each of us withdrew into his own thoughts.随后,我们的谈话停止了,我们各自思考。
reproductive/ˌriːprə'dʌktɪv/ adj. (生物)生殖的【例句】Every animal has reproductive organs.每种动物都有生殖器官。
sobering /'sobərɪŋ/ adj. 使清醒的,使冷静的【例句】Hollywood movies like " Contagion" are sobering reminders of the real threat of deadly viruses.好莱坞电影《传染病》里面描述的真正威胁致命病毒令人印象深刻。
vaccine /'væksiːn/ n. 疫苗;痘苗adj. 痘苗的;疫苗的【例句】There is no vaccine against HIV infection.还没有抗艾滋病感染的疫苗。

重点单词Scientists who have been studying the genetic sequences of viruses from China and a few other of the countries that have recorded cases have calculated what is known as the reproductive rate of this outbreak—the number of people, on average, that each case will infect.

这个句子的主干是:Scientists have calculated what is known as the reproductive rate of this outbreak.主句的what is known as the reproductive rate of this outbreak是一个宾语从句,充当calculated的宾语。中间的who have been studying the genetic sequences of viruses from China and a few other of the countries that have recorded cases是一个who引导的定语从句,说明具体是哪些Scientists. 破折号后面的the number of people, on average, that each case will infect.是对前面的the reproductive rate of this outbreak的解释说明。


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