经济学人DAY11 |此次疫情之后,中国会出现经济危机吗?

最新消息 2020-02-20 15:16:15


Viral injections病毒注射




Companies warn of an economic crisis as China battles coronavirus在中国抗击冠状病毒之际,各公司警告可能出现经济危机The government steps up support, not to boost growth but to ensure social stability政府加大支持力度,不是为了促进增长,而是为了确保社会稳定

1. RARELY HAVE plans in China fallen apart so swiftly and so publicly. On January 12th the leaders of Hubei declared that the province’s GDP would grow by 7.5% this year. They made no mention of a new virus fast spreading through its towns and cities. But less than two weeks later it could not be ignored. They placed the province under quarantine, hemming in over 50m people and rendering this year’s flashy growth target almost certainly unreachable.

2. The lurch from confidence to anxiety has echoed throughout China. In the months before the coronavirus outbreak, the stock market had rallied and businesses had been upbeat, not least because China and America had struck a trade deal. But optimism has crumbledas officials have begun to fight theepidemic.

3. The Chinese stock market has fallen by 10% since January 20th. Factories and offices were supposed to reopen in recent days after the new-year holiday. Most provinces have ordered them to stay shut until at least February 10th. Farmers have warned that their chickens might starve because roadblocks havesnarled their feed supplies. Few people dare venture out, hitting restaurants and hotels especially hard. In an interview that attracted much attention before being censored, the founder of Xibei, a restaurant chain, said that if the lockdown persisted for a few months, vast numbers could lose their jobs. “Wouldn’t that be an economic crisis?” he asked.

4. Analysts have rushed to lower their economic forecasts. The consensus had been that GDP would expand about by 6% year-on-year in the first quarter. Now several expect a 4% pace, the slowest since China began publishing quarterly figures in 1992.

5. Usually, the further into the future you peer, the greater the uncertainty. But as past epidemics have shown, China’s officials can be fairly confident that growth will rebound to its pre-virus trajectory next year. It is the next couple of months that are the black hole. Three unknowns cloud the outlook: how long it takes to contain the virus; when the government relaxes its heavy-handed restrictions on daily life; and how long after that people resume the whirl of activity that normally makes the Chinese economy so vibrant.

6. This near-term uncertainty presents a challenge for economic policy. Even if growth plummets, a big stimulus package might be dangerous medicine. Given the lag in spending, the boost from projects announced today could kick in just as the economy gathers steam of its own, leading to overheating. Instead, measures to help people and firms through the rough patch are more sensible. These can be pared back when the recovery eventually arrives. Getting them right, though, is not easy.

7. Officials are combining temporary cash support with marketinterventions and forbearance. On February 3rd the central bank injected 1.2trn yuan ($172bn) into the financial system by purchasing treasury bonds from banks that promise to buy them back within 14 days. Banks will probably suffer from rising loan defaults in the coming weeks; this gives them more cash to work with in the near term. The central bank can extend the support if needed.

8. Officials are also meddling in the stock market (or, as they would say, managing it). Regulators have told brokers to bar clients from short selling, so as to limit downward pressure, according to Reuters. State media have also played cheerleader, saying that big state-owned insurance companies were primed to scoop up undervalued stocks. Share prices still dropped by 8% on February 3rd. But that was largely a catch-up with the Hong Kong market, which had been open the previous week. Trading has since stabilized, suggesting that the tactics are working.

9. Finally, officials have been orchestrating forbearance on various fronts. Shanghai was due to raise companies’ social-security contributions on April 1st. That has been delayed by three months, saving firms an estimated 10bn yuan. In Beijing officials have encouraged landlords to cut their commercial tenants’ rents, in exchange for subsidies. And regulators have called on banks nationwide to roll over loans to companies that would otherwise lack the cashbuffers to survive.

10. Even as the death toll mounts, some officials are already thinking about the economic distortions that have arisen in the course of the battle against the epidemic. Hospitals face shortages of masks, gowns and gloves. At the government’s urging, producers have increased output. But as Liu Shangxi, an adviser to the finance ministry, has noted, they will suffer from severeovercapacity after the crisis passes. The government should thus be ready, he argues, to compensate them.

11. Such proposals are a far cry from the bold plans that Hubei’s leaders laid out only a few weeks ago. Yet the priority these days is not to gee up growth but to ensure that society remains stable as the quarantines drag on. China’s grim new reality is that everything, even economic policy, revolves around beating the virus.








step up增加,加快,提升,升高(电压),站出来【例句】This might feel insecure, but once you step up, your weight will shift back onto your feet.   这样做可能会有点不稳的感觉,但是一旦抬腿踩好后,重量就又会转至到脚上。 fall apart散开, 崩溃, 破碎【例句】Others fall apart under pressure, while a few people do well despite the pressure.   基他人在压力下崩溃了,而一些人尽管有压力却做得很好。
flashy /'flæʃɪ/ adj. 闪光的;瞬间的;俗丽的;暴躁的【例句】He always had a flashy car.他的车总是很招摇。
quarantine /'kwɒrəntiːn/ n. (人或动物生病之后被隔离的)检疫期vt. 对…进行检疫隔离【例句】James was quarantined for three weeks when he had scarlet fever.詹姆士患猩红热后被隔离了三个星期。
hem/hem/ n. 摺边;边,边缘vt. 包围;给...缝边【短语】cuffed bottom hem反脚;翻贴边裤脚hem and hawv. 哼哼哈哈bottom hem下摆卷边;底卷边【例句】The hem on her skirt needs sewing.她裙子上的褶边需要缝一缝。 

lurch/lɜːtʃ/ vi. 蹒跚而行, 颠簸着行进n. 突然倾斜【例句】The ship gave a lurch to starboard.船的右舷突然倾侧。
rally /'rælɪ/ vt. 集合;团结;恢复健康、力量等vi. 重整;恢复;团结;(网球等)连续对打n. 集会;回复;公路赛车会注:Rally 反弹:泛指市场或产业逆转先前整体跌势,或从窄幅交易范围向上升。【例句】They will often rally in a crisis.他们在危机中总能团结在一起。
upbeat/'ʌpbiːt/ n. 兴旺;上升;弱拍adj. 乐观的;上升的【例句】That’s why I’ve been collecting ways to help people feel good and stay upbeat day in, day out.   这就是为什么我曾经收集这些方法去帮助人们感觉良好并每天保持乐观的心态。
not least尤其;相当重要地【例句】So far only a few emerging economies, such as Mexico and Poland, have signed up, not least because of the stigma attached to any hint of a loan from the IMF.  目前只有一些新兴经济体,如墨西哥和波兰,已经签署协议,尤其是因为关于国际货币基金组织贷款的任一注意事项都存在问题。
crumble/'krʌmb(ə)l/ vt. & vi. (把…)弄碎, (使)碎成细屑vi. 衰落, 崩溃【短语】crumble to dustv. 垮掉,化为乌有【例句】The mighty empire finally crumbled.这个强大的帝国最终瓦解了。
epidemic /epɪ'demɪk/ adj. 流行的;传染性的n. 流行病;传染病;风尚等的流行【例句】Ebola might have become a worldwide epidemic.那么,埃博拉病毒很可能会席卷全球。 snarl/snɑːl/ n. 咆哮;混乱;怒骂v. 咆哮;怒骂;缠结【例句】He sprang back, bristling and snarling, fearful of the unseen and unknown.他飞身撤回前腿, 竖起鬃毛吼了起来, 对这看不见而又一无所知的东西感到恐惧。
censor /'sensə/ vt. 审查,检查n. 检查员;潜意识压抑力;信件检查员【例句】The political satire was censored by the government.政治讽刺作品受到政府的审查。 

rush to…匆匆送往;匆匆到…,火速赶往…;急着做…【例句】Then break your chain, my boat, and be free, and fearlessly rush to your wreck.   那么,挣断铁链,我的小船,摆脱羁绊,无畏地冲向你的毁灭吧!
year-on-year adj. 与上年同期数字相比的【例句】That was expected, however. More telling is that revenues rose by 48% year-on-year.不过这也在预料之中,可是利润却以48%的速度逐年递增。 

trajectory /trə'dʒekt(ə)rɪ/ n. <物>弹道,轨迹;轨道<数>轨线;常角轨道【例句】European explorers dreamed of following Julius Caesar's career trajectory.欧洲的探索者希望能够延续尤里乌斯·凯撒的道路。
heavy-handed /'hevi'hændid/ adj. 笨手笨脚的;动作迟钝的;拙劣的;严厉的;粗暴的【例句】And the economy-typically an instant victim of heavy-handed government attempts at redistribution-has grown healthily.经济通常会受到政府在重分配方面实行即时高压手段的影响,但是马来西亚的经济却在稳健的增长。
vibrant /'vaɪbrənt/ adj. 振动的;颤动的;响亮的;充满生气的;精力充沛的;兴奋的【例句】He exuded an air of raw, vibrant masculinity.他透出一种豪放的、活跃的阳刚之气。 

near-term/'niətə:m/n. 短期,近期【例句】However, as they try to face down a long-term threat while maintaining near-term profits, they are still pushing their syrupy fare.然而,他们仍旧努力推动碳酸饮料事业的发展,试图在维持短期利润的同时,努力克服长期以来的威胁。
plummet/'plʌmɪt/ n. 铅锤,坠子vi. 垂直落下【例句】The damaged aircraft plummeted down to earth.损坏的飞机垂直坠落于地上。
kick in踢开;支付;开始生效,起作用;腿打水游进;死亡【例句】Besides, knowing that we are not alone just might be the kick in the pants we need to grow up as a species.   此外,知道我们并不是孤独的大概会成为我们作为一个物种成长过程中所解不开的心结吧。
pare back缩减;削减【例句】A bigger budget has been outlined for 2016, though it is unclear how it will be financed, and recurrent spending will be pared back.布哈里已经为2016年勾勒了一个更大的预算(尽管目前还不清楚钱从哪来),而且周期性的开支将得到削减。 forbearance/fɔː'beər(ə)ns/ n. 忍耐,克制;宽容【例句】Our Confederacy, fellow_citizens, can only be preserved by the same forbearance.同胞们,只能以相同的忍耐来保护我们的联盟。
intervention /ɪntə'venʃ(ə)n/ n. 介入, 干涉, 干预【例句】The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
Bar from 禁止【例句】He noted that there are also temples that bar men from entering.他指出,甚至有一些寺庙禁止男性出入。
short selling 卖空注:short 空头,又称放空、做空、沽空(香港用语)、抛空(香港用语)、卖空(新马两地用语),与多头相对,指投资人在手中不持有证券或金融产品的情况下,向第三方(银行或券商)借入来卖出。由于是借入资金,因此需要每日支付利息。一般而言,散户难以沽空证券,因为少量的借入某一证券是十分困难。沽空外币及贵金属则十分容易,因为种类少,而且流动性高。【例句】UK, US and European nations all clamped down on short selling during the crisis over fears it was exacerbating market slumps, particularly in financial stocks.   在金融危机期间,英国、美国和欧洲其它国家全都限制卖空交易,因为担忧卖空交易会加剧市场(尤其是金融类股)的暴跌。
scoop up用铲子取;兜接,舀上来【例句】He used his bare hands to scoop up water from the river.他徒手从河里舀水。
undervalue /ʌndə'væljuː/ vt. 对(某人或某事物)评价过低; 低估(某人或某事物)【例句】So strong is the dollar that even the adjusted Big Mac index finds the euro undervalued.美元如此强势以至于用调整后的巨无霸汉堡指数都得出欧元低估的结论。
downward pressure下向压力;向下压力【例句】If there's downward pressure on costs, because of a need for investment in other areas, I would argue that this is a perfectly feasible solution.如果成本压力下降,由于需要投资于其他领域,我认为这是一个完全可行的解决方案。
meddle in干涉,干预【例句】Don't meddle in other people's affairs.不要干涉别人的事情。 

buffer/'bʌfə/ n. 起缓冲作用的人(或物);〈机〉缓冲器, 减震器vt. 缓冲, 减轻【例句】Family and friends can provide a buffer against stress.家人和朋友可以帮你缓解压力。
orchestrate /'ɔːkɪstreɪt/ vt. 把(乐曲)编成管弦乐;和谐地安排;精心策划【例句】Once we have seen that we can change our own life and construct our own experience, we are able to orchestrate things so that we experience greater meaning.   一旦我们发现我们可以改变自己的生活并组建自己的经历,我们就可以精心编排,这样我们的经历就会更加有意义。 

overcapacity /əʊvəkə'pæsɪtɪ/ n. 生产能力过剩【例句】It also acknowledged recent reform progress made in the country, such as improving financial regulation, reducing overcapacity and combating pollution.同时,这份报告中还谈及中国最近进行的改革,比如加强金融监管、减少过剩产能以及防止污染。 

far cry from相距甚远;离……差的老远;有很大的差异【例句】Given that current MS treatments are a far cry from a cure and do not work for everyone, some people with MS feel there is no harm in trying something that might improve their quality of life.  假设目前的医学治疗还远未达到治愈疾病的水准,并且,尚不是对每个人都有效,那么,一些医患就会认为,改进生命质量的一些尝试可能是无害的。
lay out设计,安排,陈列,花费,拟定【例句】What I do is lay out a method of viewing the world, and my exercises are designed to be done in your everyday life.我所做的只是把一种看待世界的方式放在你面前,而我的练习实际上也是你应该在日常生活中所做的。
gee up让马快跑;命令向前跑【例句】I think we got a wee bit of a gee up then, and when the crowd gets up it makes a difference to our game.我想我们那时候开始发力了,球迷们的声势让比赛不同。
drag on拖延【例句】These are not just inconveniences, but also an enormous drag on society.这些不仅仅是麻烦,而且对社会而言是巨大的拖累。
grim reality严峻的现实【例句】Now they are facing grim reality once more.  现在他们又要面临着残酷的现实。
revolve around围绕…转动;以…为中心【例句】The controversy revolves around what's called Apple Pay.此番争论涉及到苹果最新的支付系统。



In an interview that attracted much attention before being censored, the founder of Xibei, a restaurant chain, said that if the lockdown persisted for a few months, vast numbers could lose their jobs.
这个句子的主干是:In an interview, the founder of Xibei said that if the lockdown persisted for a few months, vast numbers could lose their jobs. 主干部分,有一个that引导的宾语从句,充当said的宾语,在宾语从句中是一个if条件句,表示假设。

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